NASCAR: Will Kevin Harvick miss the playoffs?

Kevin Harvick is still without a win and has yet to secure a spot in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, despite the fact that there are only two regular season races remaining.

Two races remain on the 26-race 2021 NASCAR Cup Series regular season schedule, and the winningest driver from the previous season — in fact, the winningest driver in any single season since 2008 — is still winless this year.

Kevin Harvick of Stewart-Haas Racing hasn’t won a race since claiming his ninth victory of the 2020 season in the round of 16 finale at Bristol Motor Speedway. Since then, he has gone 0 for 31.

He’s still had a good 2021 season thus far, sitting in ninth place in the point standings, but with two races left in the regular season, he hasn’t clinched a playoff spot.

Could the 2014 champion really miss the 2021 playoffs?

The 2021 season has seen 14 different victors, and Harvick currently sits second in the point standings among winless drivers, trailing only Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin.

However, he is ranked 15th, not 16th, in the 16-driver playoff standings since the most recent of those 14 winners, Kaulig Racing’s A.J. Allmendinger, is a full-time Xfinity Series driver who does not compete for Cup Series points and is thus eligible for the playoffs.

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But Harvick isn’t completely safe. It’s not a guarantee, but he’s almost certainly going to complete the regular season as the second most winless driver.

He cannot overtake Hamlin in the point standings (he trails by 198 points), and he is 67 points ahead of Tyler Reddick of Richard Childress Racing, with a maximum of 110 points remaining for any non-winning driver in the next two races of the regular season (55 in each). He is 95 points ahead of Austin Dillon of Richard Childress Racing.

So he isn’t actually in a points race; he just needs to avoid two different winners (other than Hamlin) in these two races.

If two new non-Hamlin winners emerge, Harvick is out, plain and simple.

Thankfully, one of these two races will be held at Michigan International Speedway, where Harvick has won four of the last five races, including both last year. He hasn’t had a season without a win since 2017. The chances of a new winner emerging are low.

The regular season finale, on the other hand, will be held at Daytona International Speedway, which has a history of producing new champions.

The track’s last two race winners had no career wins prior to winning there, and the winner of the track’s summer race has not won a non-superspeedway race in the same season since 2016.

So, is it possible that Harvick will miss the playoffs? Yes, but it is quite unlikely. He should be locked in as long as a new winner does not emerge at Michigan International Speedway (provided Reddick and Dillon do not get to within 54 points).

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