It all started with a question. Kevin Harvick asked crew chief Rodney Childers how he believed the day’s event would go for them on the morning of the race at Kansas Speedway in May, when they were in the midst of a season-long search for more competitive performance.
Childers, a devoted student of simulation data and one of the sport’s top game-planners, understood they didn’t have the speed to compete for the win in the conventional manner, as Harvick and Childers have become known for. He was very honest with his driver in his response.
“I said, ‘Well, you’re going to have to race differently than you’ve ever raced,’” Childers recalled. “‘You’re going to have to race like Kyle Busch did last year and you’re going to have to fight for every position all day long and, hopefully, you’re in the top five somewhere at the end of the day, where you can capitalize on something.’
“He went out there that day and he fought and clawed all day long. And at the end of the day, Kyle wins the race and we finish second.”
Harvick’s best finish to this point in 2021 is a runner-up finish. His car set the eighth-fastest median lap time in the race. However, stingy positional defense and a passing output atypical of the 45-year-old driver — 56.29 percent of Harvick’s pass encounters resulted in his favor, the best adjusted pass efficiency of any driver in the race — enabled the 45-year-old driver maintain strong initial track position (he started fourth). It was a strong performance that was complemented by flawless pitting, resulting in a three-position net gain across six stops.
“That’s really what it’s about,” Childers said. “Like, neither of us (Busch’s team and Harvick’s team) had the fastest cars at Kansas, but we sat there and did the right things.”
“We had good pit stops. We had all that going for us. So, it’s the same thing when the playoffs start this year.”
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If Harvick qualifies, this season’s playoffs will be significantly different from the No. 4 team’s first two attempts in the stage-racing era. With so many playoff points in his pocket, Childers used to be able to ignore any stage finish other than first, instead focusing on improving his strategy for outright race victory.
Stage points are a must for the winless team now and in the playoffs, a form of round-to-round survival to which Childers has already resigned.
“Yeah, we’re probably going to have to get stage points and that kind of thing,” Childers said. “But I think the thing to look at, too, is not a lot of races left in the playoffs are races where you’re going to pit early and do all those things. You’ve got the Roval in there, but, overall, it’s gonna be about having fast cars and having the best engines and doing all those things, and being fast.
“If you can’t go out there and lead laps and win stages and be in that top five in every stage and get those points, then you don’t hardly deserve to move on anyway.”
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This year, being fast appears to be an elusive goal. Since teaming up with Childers in 2014, Harvick has had a car that has finished in the top four every season. The car is now ranked 10th.
While there have been high marks — it was the third-fastest car at New Hampshire and the fifth-fastest car at Darlington — it’s a minor improvement over the No. 4 car’s position (12th) after five races, when Childers went public with how NASCAR’s updated inspection process neutralized Stewart-Haas Racing’s previous season’s advantage.
While Harvick’s speed is superior to that of his three SHR stablemates, he hasn’t been able to win a single race. That was evident in New Hampshire, where Aric Almirola won with a car that was fifth in median lap time (but first across the final stage), and at Indianapolis, where Chase Briscoe was in the lead in the final laps with a car that had set the best lap of the race.
New Hampshire was traditionally a stout track for Almirola, where his “shock” victory was expected, and Briscoe had previously won the only stock car race on Indy’s road course. These seem to be deliberate efforts by SHR to maximize its drivers’ best tracks, and it’s worth noting that Harvick will compete in three races as the defending champion over the next five weeks (Michigan, Darlington and Bristol).
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Harvick is the only one of SHR’s four drivers who is slower on 750-horsepower tracks than on 550-horsepower tracks, according to his average median lap ranking. His strength and — based on context clues from his interviews last week, in which he preferred Indy’s 2.5-mile oval over its road course — his personal preference, are the bigger tracks. On 550-horsepower tracks, he is third in Production in Equal Equipment Rating, trailing only Busch and Kyle Larson, but he is tenth in the same category on 750-horsepower tracks.
It would behoove SHR to provide him with exceptional speed this Sunday in Michigan — he’d almost certainly make the most of it — but it wouldn’t be nearly as useful across a playoff slate dominated by 750-horsepower circuits. Regardless, any improvement at this time of year is a big ask. Harvick may be forced to continue his grind.
Childers has a handle on the uphill battle, but it’s still a battle.
“It kind of is what it is at this point,” Childers said. “From a car side, we’re not really going to make the cars much better.
“From an engine side, those guys have been locked up all year long. They had to submit all of their parts going into this year and they can’t change all the things that we’ve been able to change in years past to be able to find more horsepower either. So, when you can’t find more horsepower and you can’t find more downforce, it puts you in a tight box.
“Those are the things that I think all of us are sitting here thinking and talking about. You’re just going to have to race differently and not make mistakes and be good on pit road and do those things. And, hopefully, you can make it through the next round, but it’s going to be tough.”
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